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Chart pattern-Head and Shoulder
Gold pared most of its gains as Israel and Iran ceasefire agreement. It hits an low of $3295 and is currently trading around $3327.
Gold's Post-Ceasefire Dip
Following the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, the demand for safe-haven assets such as gold decreased significantly. A two-week high caused gold prices to plummet over 1%, while spot gold fell to approximately $3,322 per ounce. This decline was due to an increased appetite for risk by investors, who were moving away from gold and towards risky assets such as equities in the Middle East, where geopolitical tensions had eased. The financial crisis of 2008 caused significant instability. The de-escalation of the conflict was seen by analysts as a significant decrease in geopolitical risk, which led to fewer people using gold as an investment vehicle for hedging.
Powell's Hawkish Stance
On June 24, 2025, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testified before the House Financial Services Committee, stating that the U.S. economy is in a strong growth phase and almost at full employment, while also observing that inflation, though decreasing, remains above the Fed's 2% target, with the preferred core inflation measure set to increase slightly in May. In his speech on Tuesday, Powell stressed the Fed's cautious stance on monetary policy and its ability to anticipate additional data before making any adjustments.
Rate Pause Expectations Shift
According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the chances of rate pause in Jul 30th 2025 meeting have decreased to 79.30% from 87.20% a week ago.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Trading Strategy
Gold prices are holding below short term moving average 34 EMA and 55 EMA and above long-term moving averages (200 EMA) on the 4-hour chart. Immediate support is at $3340 and a break below this level will drag the yellow metal to $3330/$3300. The near-term resistance is at $3385 with potential price targets at $3400/43420$3450/$3475/$3500/$3550.
It is good to sell below $3295 with a stop-loss at $3330 for a target price of $3000.
